Guaranteed they will discover a link between and cosmetic fillers and autoimmune disease in the not so distant future or they already have but aren’t exactly rushing to publicize it because you’d have to be an idiot to tamper with an industry so lucrative
Yesterday’s post was a bit of a downer, so here io9 lists The Most Futuristic Predictions That Came True In 2014, including technologically-assisted telepathy, 3d printing in space, laser weapons, and landing a robot on a comet.
Yesterday’s post was a bit of a downer, so here io9 lists The Most Futuristic Predictions That Came True In 2014, including technologically-assisted telepathy, 3d printing in space, laser wea…
This week @shaanvp made predictions on what will be the next: - Apple - Facebook - 7/11 - Google He's good at predictions, so listen up. And click the full video for the full ep (he makes more predictions). I think he's 100% right on Apple. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/CsaeyYCcaO
bookmark this if you wanna shove my predictions in my face later.. Next apple = someone who makes a breakthru health wearable device Next amazon = someone who nails hands free shopping (convo commerce) Next facebook = hands free, always on wearable camera pic.twitter.com/CVCXeRCyAT
bold prediction - we will see a private equity buyout a IG brand like these for $100m+ in the next 24mo. The next Mrs. Fields cookies, Aunt Aunnie's pretzels, and Ben & Jerry's are going to be instagram brands FIRST. I'd invest $250k into each of these today, no hesitation.
So... everyone seems to think clubhouse is the "next big thing" - but I think it's going to fail. Here's how I think it all goes down..
(disclaimer - I don't *want* clubhouse to fail. The world is more fun if it wins... but wanting something doesn't mean it's going to happen. If it did, then guac would be default included inside every bag of chips)
OK let's pretend you are the CEO of Clubhouse. First of all - f*ck yes. you f*cking did it!!! People like your app. No, no - they LOVE your app.
It feels like almost everyday, a new celebrity is using it. It starts with minor tech celebs.. then breaks out of tech NBA players. DeadMau5. Neil Degrasse Tyson texts you asking to reset his password.
It keeps going. Logan Paul. Beeple. Gary V sees that you've created a new place to yell, and immediately starts a room telling 24 year olds if they really want to make money, just move back in with their parents & sell their parents furniture on craigslist.
You're winning baby. A16Z gives you a term sheet. The valuation has 3 commas. You're a unicorn. You decide to sign the paperwork. They facetime Andre Iguodala during the signing. You're not sure why, but you say hi to iggy.
You're getting calls from every news outlet. Forbes puts you on the "future billionaires" list. Tech Crunch declares "The Future is Audio". Stephen Colbert mentions clubhouse in his opening monologue. He's making fun of it..but hey - Colbert knows our name baby!
Emily Chang invites you on Bloomberg. You wear your visionary grey v-neck. You dress simple, but you talk fancy. This isn't just a chatroom app. It's a "serendipity network". It's "auditory escapism". She asks where you came up with the idea...
Silly emily - it's not "your idea"...it's "OUR idea" Humans have been talking since the dawn of time. You tell her that voice is powerful because it has tone & texture Talking around a campfire is as old as cavemen. But you catch yourself quickly & correct it to cave-persons
Emily wants to know about the future. Are the rumors true? Will you add VIDEO to clubhouse?? You pause dramatically. ... "Video is a bug, not a feature" Boom. F*cking Nailed It
After the media tour - you are itching to go back to work. You tell people you're "going heads down". They agree. Wise move. But you get back to your desk and check the dashboard. Hm.. the chart isn't quite as "uppy and to the righty" as it's supposed to be.
Your daily active users # isn't growing as fast as it was a few months ago. Hmm.. app downloads are slowing. You refresh, in case the chart was buggy. (it wasn't)
You look deeper. Retention is slipping. It's not terrible...but new users aren't sticking around the same way those early users were. You call a team meeting with your inner circle.
The team looks at the charts. They are a little concerned, but still feeling good. "We just have to talk to our users" You do that, and find that Clubhouse really has two - totally different use cases: 1) Content 2) Chillin
Content is shows. Panels. Fireside Chats. Q&As. AMAs. Sweet. You're the next youtube. Except that a lot of the content is "meh". So users aren't sticking around. b..bu...but every platform has a bunch of junk content. Let's focus on the GOLD content!
Yes - some content is gold. Like the "Good Time Show" or "Shoot Your Shot- NYU Girls Roasting Tech Guys". Or those magic moments where Elon pops in and grills the robinhood guy. So you triple down on Content. You build features like scheduling, Q&A tools, and monetization
Content creators are happy. But retention doesn't improve. Why not? You have a bad case of The Interesting-ness Problem. When a user opens an app (IG, youtube, TikTok) they need juicy content within 7 seconds (or they bounce) This is the "Interesting-ness" problem.
Those other apps (IG, Tiktok etc.) have millions of pieces of content to choose from. So their algorithms get really really good at finding juicy content for you right away. But clubhouse is LIVE. So you need something INTERESTING that's ALSO happening RIGHT NOW.
You tell the team to focus on this "first time user experience". Your engineers say OK, but they warn you: multiplying "content is interesting" and "content is live" doesn't just make the problem 2x harder..it makes it 200x harder.
You rebuttle: "Well - Twitch figured out how to do this! Twitch is live content - so clearly it's possible!" The engineers offer you a chair and a box of tissues. you sit down, and they begin to explain...
1 - twitch creators are live ~40 hours a week. Our best creators do weekly shows. ~3-4 hrs a week max. The game makes content creation easier 2 -Twitch is vertically focused (gaming). Clubhouse is horizontal. You need "great content" across EVERY category.
3 - On Clubhouse, if you join a convo 45 minutes late, you missed the best talking points and might be lost. But with Twitch, the "game stores the context". No matter when I join, I look at the game and I know what the player is doing. So it's "live" but not "urgent".
Hmm.. meeting ends. Next meeting - Biz dev. You tell Adam to "go get better content" This is hard. Creators with big audience (proven good content) don't want to switch platforms. Spend an hour "live" on clubhouse reaching 2,000 people... or do a podcast and reach 200,000?
So you offer podcasters a "recording" feature. Do the show live on clubhouse - & get a recording for your podcast! EZ Peazy You tell the engineers to ship the recording feature "asap or sooner". In their private slack, they make fun of you because that phrase makes no sense.
Recording feature ships. Sadly - it flops. When creators care more about the recording, they stop inviting in random audience members. The fun of "live" is gone. Listeners: what's the point of showing up live? why not just listen to the podcast later?
Emergency team meeting. This "content" strategy isn't working. We need to get back to our roots. What made clubhouse magical to begin with? Nobody says anything. You scan the room. You point at Joe, the product manager. "Joe - what got you hooked on clubhouse?"
Joe's first night on the app, he was in a room with Marc Andreesen & the guy who invented the hashtag. This app is legit. Joe goes to a new room, & ends up talking on clubhouse till 1am that night, and met some cool people. One guy made a kajillion dollars on NFTs. Sweet.
You dramatically erase the whiteboard. No more peacetime ceo. It's wartime. Forget shows. Those were annoying anyways. Too many "experts" and "success coaches" anyways. What is this...Discord for Douchebags? No no, you take the blue marker and write "CHILLING" on the board.
Yes - that's right. Chilling. This is a "social network" not a "performance network" The data backs it up. People who use the app to just chill / hangout (not creating shows) use clubhouse WAYY more. We're talking 4+ hours a day on average. Retention problem = solved.
But it turns out - chilling is a dead end too. Retention & usage are great...but growth stays slow. It makes sense -- if I'm coming here to MAKE friends...then I'm not going to "bring friends". Chilling = sticky, slow growth Content = fast growth, not sticky
It worked in the tech bubble, because the hype cycle drove in so many tech people that you hit critical mass. You can't replicate that magic in every community The end of the story isn't so much fun. growth slows. users churn. You end up getting acquired for $90M by facebook.
You spend a year as PM of facebook voice before quitting and traveling across south east asia for a year. It's not all bad. you had a hell of a ride, and made some good money. You vow to only work on enterprise saas for the rest of your career the end.
ps. I hope I'm wrong. I hope clubhouse solves the content problem, and becomes a $50B company - and people shove this thread in my face every year. The world is more fun if I'm wrong, so here's to being wrong !
normally I just use twitter for memes, and post stuff like this on my personal email list. If you like this, you should join --> shaanpuri.com
don't say i didn't tell ya 🤐🤐
So... everyone seems to think clubhouse is the "next big thing" - but I think it's going to fail.
I hate to say I told ya so...
But I'll be damned if I didn't tell ya so.
Rewind the clock to February 26th. It was a sunny day... COVID was just around the corner, people were still french kissing, sharing straws at basketball games, and working in offices. I had a guest on my podcast named Stu Iverson. And he predicted something that nobody had ever heard of...but is now a big deal.
"Clout Kitchens". (here's the clip )
What is a clout kitchen? It's a play on the phrase "cloud kitchen"
Cloud Kitchen = a restaurant with no storefront. Just delivery via doordash, uber eats etc..
Clout (with a T) Kitchen = One of those ^ branded with a celebrity.
The idea didn't exist at the time, but it sounded reasonable. After all - you have Bobby Flay's Burger Bar, Gordon Ramsay's Hell's Kitchen etc.. So the idea of a celebrity slapping their name & face on a restaurant is not new.
But nobody had done this with a virtual restaurant (cloud kitchen) yet.
And then a few weeks ago, a YouTuber named Mr. Beast (48M Subscribers) surprised everyone by launching Mr Beast Burger in TWO HUNDRED LOCATIONS overnight. His companion app hit #1 on the app store charts, and he did over $15M+ in revenue in 48 hours.
How did he do this? Why did he do this? WHat does this mean? Let's dive in.
Who's Behind it?
MrBeast partnered up with a company most of you have never heard of - Virtual Dining Concepts ( VDC ) to pull this off.
VDC is the brainchild of Robert Earl (CEO of Planet Hollywood) and their business model is to license the names & faces of influencers, and then handle all the food stuff. They have:
Mariah Carey's Cookies
Mario Lopez Tortas
Paulie D's Italian Subs
...and now, MrBeast's burgers
How It Works
VDC goes into cities, and finds restaurants that have extra capacity to produce orders for them. So basically, they find a mom & pop burger joint, and they send them a tablet that will print orders that come in for Mr Beast for them to fulfill. They give the restaurants some branded packaging, so to the end customer, it looks like it came from "MrBeast Burgers" instead of the local burger joint.
For the restaurant - they get to a little extra money (which is helpful, especially during COVID), since they already have the staff & ingredients just sitting around.
How Much Money Does This Make?
I asked a buddy who works in the industry to help put together a spreadsheet. He agreed as long as I keep his identity confidential. Here's the napkin math for Clout Kitchens
Of course some of these assumptions are off (eg. maybe he has a more favorable profit share, or maybe some locations are duds)
Per location it's quite modest. Just 60 orders a day, for ~$240 profit per location... but the magic is that he rolled out a 300 restaurant chain overnight! So that nets out to $14k-24k in profit PER DAY. That's $500k/month in profit or $6M a year.
that's a lot of cheddar!
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OK back to it.. let's talk about the
Risks, Challenges, Aka The Bad Stuff
Now it's not all rainbows and sunshine.
The day they launched, the network got slammed with so many orders, deliveries were 2-3 hours late, and they had a ton of refunds.
And since every restaurant is different, every burger is different...which is a nice way of saying - quality control is gonna be a bitch here.
And the biggest risk of all - this was a great marketing stunt, but will customers retain? 14 days later, will you choose a Mr Beast Burger or will years of seeing the Jack in the Box guy on TV pull you back when you want a burger?
Where To From Here?
1) You will see a WAVE of branded cloud kitchens in 2021. Burritos, Burgers, Salads, Juices, Bubble Tea, Ice Cream etc.. Food is something every one of your fans love, so you'll see more social media stars doing this. (eg. if Dave Portnoy doesn't do a "one-bite pizza" chain, he's leaving $50m+ on the table.. Dave, call me!)
2) A bunch will fail. This happens anytime there's a gold rush. Who cares. Some will survive and become the next big name chain (eg. the next pizza hut will be a cloud kitchen, probably backed by an influencer)
3) This is not the first time influencers slapped their name on a product to make money:
Alcohol - eg. ryan gosling (gin), conor mcregor (whiskey), lebron james (tequila) Mobile Games - Kim kardashian, family guy etc.
Makeup - Rhianna (Fenty), Kylie Jenner etc..
and it won't be the last... the next place for influencers to turn their fame into fortune is going to be....digital art! (i'll explain in a future post if you're interested!)
Until next time,
I hate to say I told ya so...
Squarespace will be a $20B+ company. Amazing to me that it’s valued at $8.71B. $SQSP at $64 a share seems to be a steal. In my opinion and analysis, I’d expect it to at least double to $128/share by end of 2022.
My estimate is ~$20B of equity positions equates to +$10/share of $Uber. Crowded scenes at airports like LAX signal surge of ridership coming+ability to ↗️ prices leads to better margins+growth UberEats+cloudkitchens potential =Potential to +$10/share=$68/share =$130B+market cap. twitter.com/tanayj/status/…
AI +Quantum Computing +Atoms +Bits = Economic Spooky Actions at a Distance. Automation of the Mind vs Automation of the Body. This battle will determine the future of work, jobs and the global economy. twitter.com/sama/status/14…
I believe @JackAbraham is the new Bezos. Just watch and see. I’ve been investing in him since he was 22 and did Milo. Then he built ebay’s mobile business. Now he’s building the new Amazon through @JoinAtomic. He’s incubating new companies like Bezos incubated AWS.
Crypto is 1st foundational silo needed to for a Cloud Governance and Cloud Government to evolve into future Startup Cities, New Cities, City-States running off a global cloud governance & cloud regulatory framework. Government policy will become more AI/Quantum computing driven.
There’ll be new cities valued in the trillions like Apple, Google, Amazon, Microsoft. Except millions of new millionaires will be created by new cities. There will be thousands of new cities created in our lifetimes. Entrepreneurs will create new cities like new companies
After SpaceX goes public + humans land on Mars, Elon will become the 1st trillionaire. Don’ t @ me if that irks you. Elon will do so much for humanity and make us a multi-planetary species. Go complain about those making billions polluting our planet or destroying democracy (FB).