Patrick Collison's recommendation. Read the blog with above name on the link.
Notes -
Utility Adjusted Total Factor Productivity- 2.1 % from 1940s-70s and 0.17% since 2005.
Only scientific breakthroughs won't change much, it also has to be adopted at scale - products.
Biotech & Health -
2 new mRNA covid vaccines in < an year, mRNA looks like a game changer. Scientists knew all the time that the vaccine was safe - Moderna was ready since 13th Jan. What other secrets about mRNA do scientists know? - Moderna - HIV vaccine candidate. mRNA can be deployed for cancer as well, its not preventative though. Genetic sequence of tumor and patients healthy cells are analyzed to predict which molecules could be used to generate a strong immune response against the cancer.
'Young Blood' was able to rejuvenate germ layer tissues and improve cognition by reducing neuroinflammation in both mice and humans. This was due to the dilution of harmful factors in old blood.These findings might lead to first real product in the space of ageing. Plasma exchange is FDA approved, though won't be advertised, is safe. Plasmapherisis machine costs just 3k $. High chance someone opens a plasma dilution clinic in 2021.
Another one is aging clocks based on DNA methylation or proteomics. These can determine your biological age. People can rejuvenate thymus - critical for immune system, decline of which is a critical factor in ageing. Author is not bullish about metformin - the one Sinclair talks about. It doesn't do much good if one is metabolically healthy.
Health trackers will become powerful and data can be used to diagnose remotely.
Energy -
2010s belonged to wind and solar, lead to innovation and cheap devices. 2020s will lead to mass adoption.
Though wind and solar are unreliable and lead to grid instability. This is where nuclear or geothermal comes in. What is more plausible this decade is enhanced and advanced geothermal systems. Costs could reach 2-3.5 cents/kwh and can be implemented even in non volcanic regions almost anywhere in the world.
Fusion looks interesting. Though fusion might take way more than a decade to become implementable and by the time it reaches there it might not be able to compete with the likes of solar, wind and geothermal.
Because holes need not be digged again, geothermal might reach 1cent/kwh by the end of this decade.
Sustainable alternative fuels SAFS. Hydrogen fuel is much better than batteries but not a energy dense as SAFs. Easy to convert atmospheric co2 into ethanol and upgrade eth to other fuels. Prometheus Fuels could decarbonize aviation very suddenly. If US pulls out of Saudi, Saudi- iran war becomes likely, which will disrupt oil supplies to Asia and disrupt the world.
Transport- Author bullish about electric cars. in Trucking and heavy machines (as predicted by yours truly), hydrogen fuels will be more suited than batteries. This shift will reduce the super harmful particles <0.1um in diameter - multiple health gains.
Supersonics - huge impact when it arrives at scale but probably not 20s. Drone delivery is likely in 20s. Falcon 9 got the cost down from 56k/kg to 2.6k/kg, starship might further bring it down to $10/kg - everything reusable, stainless steel in place of expensive metal and dirt cheap liquid methane.150 tons to LEO and then anywhere in solar system at the same cost as its refuelable in LEO.Commerce between Earth, LEO, Moon and Mars will be possible.Starlink will be a real game changer, internet speed are already 100mbps only experiences problems with bad weather, with better satellites speeds could reach a gig. Starlink will serve 3-4 percent of hard to reach customers. If 2B a year spaceX could do so much, what can 72B a year starlink do? Will be a cash cow. A permanent moon base by the EOD seems plausible. Space manufacturing for microgravity- structures that collapse under their own weight will become possible. Author is not bullish about space mining in 20s.
IT - Custom silicon is going to be huge - M1 reviews show it. migration to proof-of-stake, lower transaction costs, more refined tools, and mature standards could lead to mainstreaming could lead to a break for crypto, else it will break if that doesn't happen in 20s.
Vertical Farming - Cheap LED electricity, direct-use geothermal heating and ML algos that determine optimal nutrient distribution.
Given most of the aobve things happen, we will go way beyond 2 percent TFP growth.
