- "We don’t need energy—what we need is the services that energy provides"
- "When you start super-insulating a house and adding intelligent, adaptive ventilation systems and passive solar design, it adds to the cost, until you get to the point where you don’t need a heating system any more."
An inspiring overview of what's to come in the next decade. Some highlights.
- Paraphrased: The Great Stagnation is over. The roaring twenties are just beginning.
- Energy
- "Batteries will never match fossil fuels’ energy density" - "Commercial aviation can’t electrify"
- Nuclear fusion possible but still a decade out.
- Geothermal seems most interesting.
- Transportation
- Urban air mobility - likely non-viable if pilot is required so automation (and regulation) will be key.
- Nationwide Hyperloop probably a decade out.
- Space
- "Trade (on Earth) is roughly inverse-linear in transport costs."
- SpaceX is incredibly impressive
- Starlink - won't serve cities - will serve 3% of market that's not currently served - still $72b market.
- Thesis - SpaceX uses Starlink revenue to accelerate Mars projects
- "The 2020s will be the decade that makes or breaks cryptocurrency"
- By the middle of the decade, augmented reality will be widely deployed, in the same way that smart watches are today.
- Glasses will be computing devices. Every big tech company has a glasses project at a relatively mature stage in the lab today.
- Not exactly sure what this means - but it seems to mean that we could theoretically create immortal low-power batteries out of graphene. They can harness the energy, but it's not clear whether the energy "runs out" or at what point (although title says "limitless").
- "A circuit capable of capturing graphene's thermal motion and converting it into an electrical current."
- "A theory that freestanding graphene—a single layer of carbon atoms—ripples and buckles in a way that holds promise for energy harvesting."
- "Refutes physicist Richard Feynman's well-known assertion that the thermal motion of atoms cannot do work."
- "The second law of thermodynamics is not violated"
- "The graphene and circuit are at the same temperature."
- "The next objective is to determine if the DC current can be stored in a capacitor. If millions of these tiny circuits could be built on a 1-millimeter by 1-millimeter chip, they could serve as a low-power battery replacement.