In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with 🇷🇺 than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis 🇷🇺. Here's why 👇 1/20 pic.twitter.com/IOdpISXyXK

So lots of people are interested in the probability of nuclear war right now. I have studied the probability of nuclear war about as much as anyone (e.g., lead author on the model in the graphic shown below). Here are my thoughts. pic.twitter.com/WwaJC85LfZ

Here's why I think there's now a one-in-six chance of an imminent global #NuclearWar, and why I appreciate @elonmusk and others urging de-escalation, which is IMHO in the national security interest of all nations: lesswrong.com/posts/Dod9AWz8… pic.twitter.com/kZtTCVhzZu

Amazing note from BCA: "The risk of Armageddon has risen dramatically. Stay bullish on stocks over a 12-month horizon." pic.twitter.com/C81FrmVFtG

I work in the aviation sector, and I can tell you that for all intents and purposes Russian aviation has - at best - about three weeks before it’s show over. One aspect is the fact that airspace available to Russian aircraft is very, very limited now. However, there is more:

Most fascinating thing about the Ukraine war is the sheer number of top strategic thinkers who warned for years that it was coming if we continued down the same path. No-one listened to them and here we are. Small compilation 🧵 of these warnings, from Kissinger to Mearsheimer.

And, in all likelihood, it’ll probably stay that way for most such conflicts. Until, one random day, it doesn’t. I also notice that the friends who assured me that Russia would NEVER invade Ukraine, are focused now on tactics, moving instantly to Russia would NEVER use nukes.

In the last few weeks, I have become increasingly convinced that Kremlin has unfortunately made a decision to invade Ukraine later this winter. While it is still possible for Putin to deescalate, I believe the likelihood is now quite low. Allow me to explain why 🧵