Stagnation in a tweet: Late 19th–early 20th c.: Oil, electricity, chemical engineering, germ theory, all going on at once. Mid–late 20th c.: Information/communication technology… and that's about it. Nuclear & space aborted. Genetics & nanotech not yet arrived.
1/ Recently finished "Where’s my Flying Car - A memoir of Futures Past" by J Storrs Hall. It's simultaneously extremely critical of the state of atom-based technology and presents a precise and aggressively optimistic vision of possible futures. BOOK REPORT THREAD 🧵
- Great review of the book "Where’s my Flying Car"
- Points/quotes
- Coupling between energy+power and technological paradigm shifts is surprisingly tight.
- Machiavelli Effect - "There is nothing more difficult than to take the lead in the introduction of a new order of things. To have for enemies all those who have done well under the old conditions, and lukewarm defenders who may do well under the new."
- R&D Funding may be anti-correlated with quality of life improvements.
- Clarke's Law - "When a elder preeminent scientist says that something is impossible, he’s probably wrong. When a elder preeminent scientist says something might be possible, he’s probably right."
- More phDs and more spending on education is probably not the solution.
- "When people with dim views of the future have power bad things happen."
- There's a potential correlation between decreasing process knowledge and risk aversion.
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